Bitcoin Price Could Gain Support as IBIT Hedging Eases: JPMorgan

Principali approfondimenti:

• Bitcoin price could gain relative support if investors unwind IBIT hedges while keeping their underlying exposure.
• Gold ETFs recovered from outflows earlier in 2026, while Bitcoin ETFs recovered only about half, JPMorgan says.
• IBIT short interest and put-to-call positioning show heavier downside protection than GLD.

JPMorgan says the Bitcoin price could receive more support than gold if investors unwind hedges but retain underlying exposure. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou point to a clear positioning gap between Bitcoin and gold funds. Gold ETFs have recovered all outflows from earlier in 2026, while ETF Bitcoin have recovered roughly half.

BlackRock’s IBIT also carries near-record short interest. By contrast, short interest in SPDR Gold Shares sits below its historical average. Options positioning shows the same divide, with IBIT carrying a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD. That gap shapes the bank’s relative positioning case.

Bitcoin Price Setup Reflects Heavier ETF Hedging

JPMorgan’s argument centers on how investors protect existing BTC ETF positions. A holder can own spot ETF shares while shorting the same fund or related instruments. Investors can also buy put options to limit losses during a decline.

Those positions do not mean investors have abandoned Bitcoin. They show that some holders still want protection against downside moves. That distinction matters for the Bitcoin price if market sentiment improves.

Closing a short requires the investor to buy back borrowed shares. That transaction can create buying pressure even when the original long position stays unchanged. A hedge unwind can therefore support price without representing a fresh long-term allocation.

Put options work differently. When investors reduce put protection, market makers may adjust their own hedges. The effect on spot demand is less direct. Lower options protection does not equal new Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Bitcoin ETF Recovery Still Trails Gold ETF Demand

JPMorgan says both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted inflows after the Federal Reserve meeting in late July. The move reflected renewed interest in the debasement trade. Investors often favor scarce assets when currency or inflation concerns increase.

Gold ETF demand has recovered faster. JPMorgan says gold funds have already offset all outflows recorded earlier in 2026. Bitcoin ETF products have recovered only about half of their previous losses.

That gap leaves gold with the stronger flow recovery so far. However, JPMorgan says Bitcoin price carries more defensive positioning beneath the headline numbers. IBIT short interest sits near its yearly high, while GLD short interest stays below its historical average.

The options market shows a similar pattern. IBIT has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD. That suggests investors use more downside protection around BTC than around the leading gold ETF.

Bitcoin Price Support Depends on Positioning Shift

The Bitcoin price would not automatically rise simply because hedging declines. JPMorgan’s case assumes investors remove protection while keeping their underlying BTC exposure. Selling both the hedge and long position would produce a different market effect.

Macro conditions can also outweigh ETF positioning. Rising real yields can reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar can pressure both Bitcoin and gold. JPMorgan says the debasement trade has weakened recently as inflation-adjusted bond yields increased.

The bank’s 2026 BTC outlook has also shifted in line with market conditions. Earlier in the year, the team estimated Bitcoin production costs near $77,000. It also maintained a much higher long-term, volatility-adjusted valuation based on comparison with gold.

SoSoValue dati show Bitcoin ETF demand strengthened through much of August before weakening again in September. Weekly readings indicate net inflows of about $4.23 billion between July 31 and September 4. The period still included a $61.53 million outflow after the Fed meeting and another $389.71 million weekly outflow in mid-August.

Momentum then reversed. BTC ETFs posted about $462.73 million in net outflows for the week ending September 11. The September 16 reading showed another $586.27 million in net withdrawals. These figures show that ETF demand has not moved in one direction, even as institutional exposure remains substantial.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ETF positioning, options activity and analyst estimates do not guarantee future Bitcoin price performance.

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